Kenya Elections Highlight Country’s Instability

Op-Ed by Emily Thompson

Newly elected Kenyan President William Ruto’s victory is being challenged by Raila Odinga, who narrowly lost according to election results, with Ruto securing 50.5% of the vote and Odinga with 48.8%. In order to win in the first round, a candidate must get 50% plus one of the cast vote and at least 25% of the votes in 24 out of 47 counties.

By law, the handover ceremony must take place 14 days after the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) declares the president-elect if there’s no court petition challenging the results.

But Odinga announced on Sunday that the party will challenge the declaration of Ruto as the president elect on Monday.

Odinga also accused the head of the IEBC of a “blatant disregard of the constitution.”

“We totally without reservation reject the presidential election results,” he said.

Speaking to supporters in the capital, Nairobi, he said that there was “neither a legally elected winner nor a president-elect.“

The 77-year-old longtime opposition leader was running for president for the fifth time. He has challenged the results in the previous two elections, including successfully in 2017. This is Odinga’s fourth defeat in a row.

But according to the IEBC, “the 2022 General Election is the most transparent election that the Commission has ever held.”

While it was the most transparent, according to IEBC, there were still efforts to interfere in the election. The IEBC said last week that four members of the commission allegedly tried to tamper with the results of the presidential election. And then, just as the electoral commission’s chairman, Wafula Chebukati, was about to announce the results, allies of Odinga stormed the stage and hurled the podium into the auditorium. Chebukati ran, fearing for his life.

Aly Verjee wrote in an article for the United States Institute for Peace (USIP) that as of now, there is little evidence of electoral misconduct, “with most observers suggesting the conduct of the polls improved compared to the last vote in 2017.”

Verjee offered three takeaways from the vote. First, that opinion polls project outcomes, but do not guarantee turnout. Second, transparency helps. And third, that the credibility of the election management body is easily squandered.

Nicoletta Barbera, also writing for USIP, notes that Kenyans want a peaceful election resulting in a new government that can address the country’s governance and economic woes.

Barbera also said that election violence has been a major issue in previous elections and this election was preceded by fear that the vote could spur conflict. Kenya now faces extraordinary challenges, including a severe drought, rising debt and inflation, and soaring food and fuel prices. Kenya’s economy, the largest in East Africa, remains critical for the wider region.

According to Barbera, the main concerns that face Kenyans today relate to reducing the public debt which hovers around $76 billion, dealing with inflation and managing the COVID-19 epidemic. Kenyans want to see a reduction in food prices as well as an increase in government accountability and good governance. Kenyan women have voiced their deep concerns with regard to sexual violence.

Odinga is seen by his supporters as a leader who is fighting a dictatorship. His detractors see him as someone who will go to great lengths just to gain power. Either way, even with his announcement that he will fight the election results, it does not look like he is going to become president and Ruto will likely remain victorious.

If this is the case, Ruto has his work cut out for him.

The new president will face challenges in confronting regional instability, youth unemployment, inflation, and the economic consequences of both the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s war on Ukraine, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

If Ruto can rein in at least some of the country’s problems and bring some level of unity to the people, with everyone working together to solve the main national concerns such as inflation and violence, then perhaps Ruto will prove himself a worthy leader. The average Kenyan wants peace and stability, and now the IEBC has determined what the majority of the public wants.

When he is finally sworn-in, it is time for Ruto to get to work.

Image: Pixabay

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