Bob Chapman
The International Forecaster
The American public is alarmed at what they see going on. Most of them do not understand what has been done to them. The propaganda fed to them daily has them completely confused and that is understandable. They know the financial sector has been bailed out and they somehow have to pay the bill. They have been deceived and few of them want to admit it. They have been told their economy is in recovery, but improvement is nowhere to be found. Government tells them inflation is 1.6% when they know it’s certainly higher than that and has been for some time. The only beacon of light, if they can discover it, is the truth of talk radio and the Internet. Through these methods of communication the truth can be found and it is reaching all around the world.
The American and European banking sectors are generally insolvent and have been so now for a few years. Almost every day there are bank mergers you never hear about and more than 110 banks have gone under so far this year. Thousands of bank branches have disappeared and many unceremoniously have had name changes.
The key to banking today is to carry two sets of books. One for the good assets and the other for the bad assets, as sanctioned by the Bank for International Settlements, the BIS, the governments in the US and Europe and the FASB. Most assets are marked to model, which means the bank determines their value arbitrarily, because no visible market exists for the assets. The bookkeeping is a travesty. The idea is to not let the public know how difficult and irreparable the situation really is. It is admitted that 829 banks are on a problem list, but that is just the tip of the iceberg. Failures should accelerate during the coming year.
This loss of trust in the system is going to take its toll. Confidence will continue to wane as more and more pressure is brought up to bear versus dollar, which in turn will force gold higher, as it continues to reassert itself as the world’s only real currency. In the end it will spell failure for dollar denominated assets. That will finally bring recognition that the system has failed. This will bring great pressure on the banking system and some major banks will fail. This is why only enough cash should be kept in banks for three months expenses, or six months for businesses and in your safe at home along with your gold and silver coins and weapons, you should have $5,000 in small bills, for emergencies.
It is important to remember that this is part of a plan to nationalize the American banking system, so that it fits into the new National Socialist structure – the corporatist structure that members of the Council on Foreign Relations, the Trilateralists and the Bilderbergs have planned for us. This national banking system is to be the key to future World Government, or a New World Order.
As that effort moves forward the Fed is just short of two years of zero interest rates, a policy that they cannot easily change. If they raise rates at this juncture or stop increasing money and credit the bottom will fall out of the economy. These are the only methods they have of keeping the system alive. The Fed struggles to keep the ship afloat knowing this may be the last time this Band-Aid solution will work. The bubbles that were created, like in real estate, is in its fifth year of decline. Next will be bonds, the stock market and with them insurance companies and retirement plans. Looking at the scene objectively everything the Fed has thus far done has been a failure. A good part of the public is aware of all this and they seethe with anger. Just consider all the unemployed over 40, who will never have a job again and if they do become employed the wage will be ½ to 1/3 of what they once earned. We get letters every day describing the plight of the average American.
Bailing out the financial system hasn’t worked. The loans and special deals have only covered up the crimes these corporations were involved in and allowed them to escape bankruptcy, which they so richly deserve. There is no other way to describe what has transpired in the financial community than welfare for the mega rich. What is worse is that they go right on looting the public as if nothing has happened.
That brings us to the antithesis, which is gold.
We are sure you all remember the supposed swap of 349 tons of gold between commercial banks and the BIS, the Bank for International Settlements. Commercial banks usually work through central banks that represent them at the BIS; thus, this was an unusual procedure, only discovered when someone picked up a footnote in the BIS statement. Making the event more sinister was that there were no BIS official announcement and that the BIS refused to name the banks involved. This is similar to the Fed refusing to divulge to whom they lent $12.8 trillion. We believe these swaps terminate in January, so we anxiously wait to see what the conclusion will be. Will the gold be redeemed or will it become the property of the BIS, or will the swap terms be extended? We guess the real question is were those who did the swap gold bullion banks? Was the public sale of gold by the IMF a factor? Remember the IMF swore they would never dump gold on the open market, but yet they did just that. Adding to the mystery is that the BIS have seldom used gold swaps in recent years. Due to the secrecy involved we tilt toward a billion-bank bailout. In addition we saw fully qualified buyers rejected and gold sold into the market by the IMF. There can be only one reason for that and that is gold price suppression. As it has turned out every time the IMF sells the Russians go into the market and buy it. We also remember a similar episode in the late 1990s when Gordon Brown, the British Treasury Secretary, sold off half of England’s gold at about $275.00 an ounce to bail out London bullion banks.
For those who have an interest in gold they should be paying close attention to gold and silver shares. As of late they have been moving up strongly. Some eight to 20 percent depending on which indicator you watch. The tenor of the market has changed decidedly over the past several months. We could well be experiencing a renewal of share influence. Up until our government decided to manipulate gold and silver, bullion, share prices always led bullion.
We believe this renewal is being led by several factors. The triumph of gold as the only world currency as witnessed over the past 16 months; the use of massive amounts of money and credit in QE1, and now at the beginnings of QE2, which will have equally bad results; trillions of dollars being stolen by those in and around government; the realization that gold and silver production have fallen; the lack of affect of massive naked net shorts in the bullion pits and the LBMA and Comex and the multitude of naked shorts in the shares, all of which have failed to deter higher prices. Higher inflation is on the way, thus $1,600 gold looks very probable this year and $3,000 next year.
Historically September sees higher gold prices 81% of the time. Between now and the end of February gold and silver should do very well. Silver is poised to soon break out to $25.00 or higher. We are also about to see a parting of the ways in gold and silver versus commodities, just like we began to see between the US dollar and gold. In the future gold and silver will be assisted by a major fall in confidence in the Federal Reserve, which is already underway. Their failure to produce a recovery with $2.5 trillion that they injected into the system, along with the administration, has not sat well in the business world. Now the Fed is beginning another $2.5 trillion rescue, which may end up being $5 trillion. Monetary expansion and monetization means higher inflation, which means higher gold and silver prices. As you see in this issue the administration is going to mark mortgages to the market and rewrite new loans. That will add to more monetary expansion. In fact it may be part of the QE2. Word is that this program could put $50 billion into consumer’s hands to spend, which the taxpayer would be on the hook for. We also estimate, even with the programs, 40% to 50% would go into foreclosures.
Rumors reach us that Bank of America was in serious trouble in July and had the Fed not poured in funds the bank would have failed. We described earlier in the year why BofA had such problems; it had been a dumping ground for the Fed. It now looks like the bank may be dismembered with the biggest and best pieces going to JPM and GS.
We are also getting disturbing reports that some kind of secret rules regarding gold and silver bullion. It seems that naked shorting has become a major problem. It may be the only way they can neutralize the problem; and that is to seize bullion accounts to cover their shorts. We are sure holders will be compensated, but they’ll lose their positions and have to buy them back somehow. We just saw the Swiss government and the banking community rollover for imperial America, so it is conceivable that they would pull something like this. Forewarned is forearmed. That is why we always recommend taking physical delivery if possible. All banks and governments are no longer to be trusted.
Second quarter GDP was 1.6%, we had predicted 1.5% months ago. As we forecast the third and fourth quarters will be dreadful, probably between minus 1 and plus 1. The quantitative easy is not coming fast enough; banks finally trying to lend to small and medium businesses, which create 70% of the jobs has had only moderate success and the new US government mark-to-market bailout of mortgage holders won’t affect the market until next year. Adjusting payments by bringing loans down will push $50 billion into the economy will only create more debt and still 40% to 50% of homeowners will fall into foreclosure. Without jobs there can be no solution.
Worse yet, corporate earnings for 2011 should be flat.
Unemployment still is going nowhere although recent numbers on the face were not all that bad. Of the 67,000 in job growth 10,000 was the result of the end of a construction strike. A figure government loves to hide is those forced into part-time employment by an additional 331,000, which certainly keeps the figure close to 10 million. In case you didn’t notice all the gains were part-timers – hours worked were flat. Manufacturing lost 27,000 jobs. In April the diffusion index was 68 and in August it was 53. Probably the most important figure of all U6 rose in August to 16.7% from 16.5% in July, as real unemployment after taking out the birth/death ratio rose again to 21-3/8%. This news should keep wage increases flat to slightly higher.
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