Mad Hedge Fund Trader
Oil Price
I received another scratchy, crackling cell phone call from my drilling buddy in the Texas natural gas fields today. You could almost choke from the dust on the line.
He told me that the BP Gulf disaster was turning the fundamental assumptions of the oil industry upside down, and that sharply higher oil prices were in the cards, probably $100/barrel by year end.
Major oil companies with deep pockets at risk were rushing to offload their existing offshore leases and partnerships in producing wells to avoid BP’s potential $30 billion hickey.
If nothing else, the majors have learned that liability caps are nothing more than wishful thinking. They can only speculate what a new round of vengeful regulation will cost them.
Hedge funds looking for “the next big play” were willing buyers, but only at substantial bargains.
We are witnessing nothing less than the birth of a new distressed junk market. It is all part of a re-pricing of risk that values offshore assets at a discount, and onshore ones at a new found premium.
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