2024: The End of China’s Rise?

Dr. Martin Jacques – How China will change almost everything explains that the Chinese economy was the largest in the world until the mid-19th century and represented one third of the global economy. China accepted only silver in exchange for goods. Britain, tired of paying in silver, seduced the Chinese to accept opium as payment!

The British Opium Wars in 1840 forced China to open. That led to China’s “Century of Humiliation”. China went into precipitous decline in the 19th century by the end of which, China was occupied by many foreign powers. Britain took Hong Kong and Portugal got Macau. Britain returned Hong Kong to China in 1997 and Portugal returned Macau in 1999.

After defeating the Nationalist Party of Kuomintang (KMT), the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) under Chairman Mao’s leadership, declared the establishment of the People’s Republic of China on 10/1/49.

Deng Xiaoping: Architect of Modern China

When Mao died in 1976, China was the second poorest among 140 countries. More than 75% of the nation lived on less than US$2 a day and the economy wasn’t even 5% the size of that of the US. Now, China is a global superpower with the second biggest economy in the world.

The Opening of China: President Nixon’s visit to China in 1972 with Henry Kissinger shows that when Nixon went to China, the world viewed images of China for the first time in over two decades. The move ended nearly 25 years of non-communication. The “Week that Changed the World” culminated in the announcement of the joint US-China Communiqué in Shanghai.

Deng Xiaoping was Chairman of the Central Advisory Commission from 1982-1987. After the death of Mao Zedong, Deng led China through a series of far-reaching market-economy reforms that earned him the reputation as the “Architect of Modern China”.

Deng introduced a new brand of thinking that combined socialist ideology with free market enterprise. He opened China to foreign investment, policies that are credited with developing China into one of the fastest-growing economies in the world and raising the standard of living of hundreds of millions.

When Deng focused on economic growth, China began making cheap goods for export which became China’s engine of transformation. In 1980, the Chinese economy was 5% of the American economy. China now has the biggest car market in the world – about 30% bigger than the American market.

Xi Jinping: Mao Plus Deng

Xi Jinping, President of China and General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party since 2012, is one of the most powerful political figures in the world. By initiating an unprecedented third term as China’s leader in October 2022, Xi has signaled he may plan to remain in power for life — making him the first Chinese leader since Mao Zedong to hold unchecked power over the People’s Republic of China.

Xi has been firmly marching toward his “Chinese Dream” – the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.” In 2017, he outlined a three-step roadmap for China to become a moderately well-off society by 2020 (the 100th anniversary of the CCP), a modern socialist economy by 2035, and a prosperous and strong country by 2050 (the 100th anniversary of the PRC). In the amended constitution, “to achieve the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” was officially instituted as the ultimate national goal.

However, China Is Facing Imminent Collapse Now explained that Peter Zeihan, an American geopolitical strategist and the founder of the consulting firm Zeihan on Geopolitics, pointed out in 2022 that because of the one-child policy, China is the fastest collapsing demographic in human history! He said there’s no way the CCP will survive and foresaw the end of China for multiple reasons!

Zeihan pointed out that companies like Apple are pulling back on reliance on China and re-establishing production in the US! Zeihan is the author of The End of the World is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization

Unprecedented Protests Against Xi and CCP

The video below discusses the unprecedented protests in China over the last two years. Young people have been taking to the streets and calling for Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party to step down! They are calling for democracy!

CNN reporter calls moment during historic China protests ‘shocking’

China: Unprecedented Nationwide Protests Against Abuses

Xi Consolidates Power Amid Covid-19, Economic Challenges

The White Paper Movement: A4 Revolution

Is China headed for new White Paper protests? 11/25/24

The silent youth protest against China’s draconian COVID restrictions ended with the pandemic. However, former protesters warn that deep-running tensions could trigger more unrest in the future.

Two years ago, university students in China‘s largest cities took to the streets, holding blank A4 sheets as symbols of silent dissent against the government’s harsh anti-pandemic restrictions. The series of protests, known as the White Paper Movement or A4 Revolution, was a rare act of nationwide defiance against the Chinese leadership — the biggest since the 1989 Tiananmen Square Massacre.

“The government now fears the White Paper Movement more than the Tiananmen Square incident, as it directly targets Xi Jinping’s authoritarian regime,” said Yicheng Huang, an exiled White Paper protester who now lives in Germany.

The protesters initially called for relaxing the COVID lockdowns, but the movement escalated into demands for the country’s leader Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to step down. Although the movement was later clamped down on by the government and failed to make systematic changes in Chinese society, Huang told DW that public discontent has continued to accumulate over the past two years.

Protesters ‘traumatized’ but also ’empowered’

During the pandemic era, Chinese President Xi strongly endorsed the zero-tolerance policy for lockdown violations in hopes of controlling COVID-19. China stuck with its restrictions even after the majority of its population received anti-coronavirus vaccines, as many other countries around the world started relaxing the measures and decided to live with the now diminished health risks. Frequent lockdowns, strict quarantine and mass testing continued to be enforced in the closing months of 2022 despite the growing public dissent.

In November 2022, a deadly fire broke out in an apartment building in Urumqi, the capital of Xinjiang province, which is the home of the Muslim Uyghur minority. At least 10 people were reported dead. Many believed the true death toll was higher and blamed stringent lockdown measures for exacerbating the fire, with vigils for the victims eventually growing into widespread protests.

Shared trauma ‘meaningful’ in isolated society

Following the unrest, Chinese authorities scrapped the zero-COVID policy, while proclaiming “a major decisive victory” in pandemic prevention and control.

At the same time, an estimated 100 protesters have been arrested and charged for “picking quarrels and provoking trouble.” Some remain detained to this day, while others have been released on bail or exiled overseas. “For those who participated in the White Paper Movement, the trauma has been significant,” Huang said, noting that civil disobedience in China “comes at a high cost.” Huang said he was violently beaten by the police, pinned to the ground, and dragged on a bus with his face covered in blood.

Testimonies from other protesters also highlight harsh detention conditions, including solitary confinement, prolonged interrogations and inhumane treatment.

However, “whether it’s the sadness and trauma or the empowerment and solidarity they feel, it’s meaningful,” said Yaqiu Wang, the research director for China, Hong Kong and Taiwan at Freedom House.

Wang described China as an atomized society where individuals usually feel isolated. The level of collective discontent shown during the White Paper Movement surprised people, she told DW. “The moment has gone, and people can’t do much anymore. But the sense that we are together is still inside people,” she said.

Beijing fearful of young people organizing on their own

Since the White Paper movement, Beijing has intensified its control and censorship of spontaneous gatherings by young people. Earlier this month, tens of thousands of college students participated in a trend of night-time bike rides in Henan province, China, to eat soup dumplings — with the government responding with strict restrictions.

Citing public safety concerns, local governments shut down bike lanes and imposed curfews; some universities also implemented lockdown measures, preventing students from leaving campus. “It really shows that the CCP is so profoundly afraid of its own people. [It] intuitively understands that when people get together, they can turn against the Party,” Wang told DW….

China’s ‘high-pressure state’ cannot last forever

“Since the pandemic, we’ve seen that the government’s censorship system is actually quite fragile, with many instances of public opinion backfiring,” said Kele, a member of Citizens Daily, an Instagram account dedicated to collecting and preserving voices of political dissent in China.

Kele, who spoke under a pseudonym for safety reasons, said the White Paper protests had caused the young people in China to realize that “even though I do not have many resources, I can make enough noise to make the government take me seriously.”

Although individual motives of protesters can vary, activists believe they can be traced back to public frustration amid tightened control and economic slowdown. And for the former protester Huang, this same frustration with China growing less stable and more oppressive can be seen as a catalyst for the recent mass killings.

“It’s impossible to maintain a high-pressure state indefinitely. A lone-wolf style of violent attacks in society is becoming more frequent, and this is because people see no justice and no hope.” Huang said.

Chinese Youth Want Better Future

The video below says, “The question is which will come first – the destruction of China or the rebirth of the nation?”

Tiananmen Square 2.0: Protesters Demand Xi Jinping Step Down, Kids Want Better Future 5/19/24

How Chinese Industry Got Too Good, Too Fast

How Chinese Industry Got Too Good, Too Fast 9/10/24

For decades, China was the go-to for low-cost manufacturing, but now it’s a global leader in advanced industries. How did China leapfrog the competition, and what does this mean for the global economy? We explore the rapid rise of Chinese industry and its implications for the future.

The End of China’s Rise

Michael Beckley on the End of China’s Rise and the Future of Global Order 11/1/24

In this keynote at the 2024 World Knowledge Forum, AEI Nonresident Senior Fellow Michael Beckley examines the pivotal question: Has China’s meteoric rise reached its peak? With deep insights into China’s economic slowdown, demographic challenges, and shifting geopolitical ambitions, Beckley outlines the potential decline of Chinese influence and what it means for the future of the global order.