We live in a magnificent yet deeply horrible world. An intricate web of crises woven across various corners of the globe has transformed this year into an utterly dreadful chaos, leaving no glimmer of hope on the horizon.
Russia’s war in Ukraine has left a path of death and destruction across both countries and there are no signs the war will end soon. The economic and diplomatic fallout from this war has been devastating and it will take years to recover from the physical, psychological, and economic carnage the war is leaving in its wake.
Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza is also ongoing. Two million Palestinian civilians have been forced to flee their homes and move from one tent encampment to another as Hamas and Israel fight each other. Israel has vowed to destroy Hamas and remove the terror group from power in Gaza after its members swept across the border on Oct. 7, killing approximately 1,200 people and kidnapping over 200, including men, women, and children.
Conflicts and upheaval in Myanmar, Haiti, and Afghanistan have left thousands of people dead or fleeing for their lives. In Africa across The Sahel, many thousands of people suffer daily, confronted with war, hunger, and general deprivation of any semblance of a normal life.
Mali, Sudan, South Sudan, Burkina Faso, Somalia, Niger, Ethiopia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo are all casualties of internal conflict and war.
In North Africa and the Middle East, Libya, Syria, and Yemen all face a questionable future as chaos reigns and lawlessness prevails.
The number of countries undergoing upheaval and the sheer amount of people suffering is eye watering and can easily turn optimists into pessimists. There truly seems to be no hope for those experiencing this devastation and misery.
For instance, according to Save the Children,
More than two years since the Taliban regained control in Afghanistan, conditions for children and their families remain catastrophic.
A perfect storm of climate disasters, a severe economic crisis and the collapse of essential services have led to one of the worst food crises ever recorded. Some 23 million people need humanitarian assistance this year. 1 in 3 people are facing extreme hunger and 41% of children under 5 are currently facing acute malnutrition.
Over 95% of families are not able to meet all of their basic needs, such as food and shelter.
The crisis is taking its toll on mental health and well-being, with 26% of girls and 16% of boys showing signs of depression.
UNICEF notes that “According to the 2024 Global Report on Food Crises, nearly 282 million people in 59 countries and territories experienced high levels of acute hunger in 2023 — up 24 million from the previous year.”
As International Crisis Group points out, the problem lies in global politics.
Since 2012, global conflict has been on the rise, reversing the decline seen in the 1990s and early 2000s. Recent wars in Gaza, Sudan, and Ukraine highlight the current failure of diplomatic efforts, with many leaders pursuing military solutions over negotiations. This escalation began with the 2011 Arab uprisings, leading to conflicts in Libya, Syria, and Yemen, and spread to the Sahel region. Significant battles followed, including the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war, the Tigray conflict in Ethiopia, Myanmar’s military coup in 2021, and Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Unfortunately, diplomatic efforts have largely focused on managing consequences rather than achieving peace. In Myanmar, Sudan, and Ukraine, meaningful peace talks are absent or ineffective.
Some regions have seen conflict subside due to battlefield victories rather than negotiations, such as the Taliban’s takeover in Afghanistan, Ethiopia’s agreement with Tigray rebels, and Azerbaijan’s control over Nagorno-Karabakh.
Historically, the 1990s saw numerous peace agreements ending conflicts in Cambodia, Bosnia, Mozambique, and Liberia, despite their imperfections. However, in the past decade, such agreements have become rare, with many parties still aiming to overpower their rivals rather than seeking compromise.
The deterioration of Western relations with Russia and the increasing competition between China and the U.S. significantly contribute to global instability. The unpredictability of U.S. foreign policy, stemming from its political dysfunction, adds to this volatility, despite the country’s ongoing military strength and influence.
Beyond the human toll of these wars, there are broader geopolitical risks. Victorious leaders seek further territorial gains, as seen with Azerbaijan potentially challenging Armenia’s borders and concerns about Ethiopia’s ambitions in the Horn of Africa. The longstanding norm of non-aggression is eroding, particularly highlighted by Russia’s actions in Ukraine. The risk of leaders moving from suppressing domestic dissent and proxy conflicts to actual invasions is higher than it has been in years.
The potential for a wider conflict is also alarming, with major powers having strong incentives to increase tensions along critical fault lines such as Ukraine, the Red Sea, Taiwan, and the South China Sea. Rhetoric from Beijing, Moscow, and Washington about war risks normalizing the catastrophic consequences of a conflict involving these superpowers.
Given their divisions, it seems unlikely that global leaders will collectively recognize the perilous state of affairs, reaffirm their commitment to non-aggression, or intensify efforts to broker peace deals that bring justice to belligerents and empower civilians.
International Crisis Group rightfully suggests that the best we can aspire to this year is to muddle through with fortitude and resolve. Diplomatic efforts away from the cacophony of war can still yield glimmers of hope.
For instance, there is the rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The leaders of Turkey and Greece have embarked on a journey to mend ties frayed by their protracted Aegean Sea dispute. A meticulously coordinated summit between President Joe Biden and President Xi Jinping in late 2023 helped to cool the fervor of the world’s most consequential bilateral relationship.
In essence, we must hope for the best while preparing to prevent the worst. As this year’s daunting list of conflicts demonstrates, we must double our efforts to resolve disputes ahead of time and find a solution to end those that threaten to endure.
Image: Pixabay
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