Unlike popular doomsday scenarios, this will be a war of flashpoints, chokepoints and High Value Targets (HVTs)
There are signs aplenty that we may face a Limited World War III (L-WW3) in the very near-future. An L-WW3 scenario would involve a global conflict, but with restraints aimed at preventing total devastation, such as the use of nuclear weapons on a wide scale. Such a war might unfold through regional conflicts, cyberattacks, physical infrastructural sabotages, proxy wars, and intense economic and technological confrontations, rather than an all-out global military clash. They could all occur simultaneously or in rapid sequence.
The Flashpoints
A flashpoint within the context of an L-WW3 refers to a region where tensions between major powers may erupt into a wider regional conflagration with global ramifications.
There are intense confrontational pressures building up across the globe. Right on top of the list would be an outright war between Israel and Iran. On Oct 1 2024, Iran launched nearly 200 hypersonic missiles towards select Israeli targets in response to the ongoing genocide in Gaza and the assassination of several high-profile Hamas and Hezbollah leaders as well as certain Iranian military commanders. All the missiles were launched from an Iranian base, reportedly located near the city of Shiraz.
This was the second direct Iranian attack against Israel after the April 2024 missile strikes launched from Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen. Tehran has an enviable array of geographically-dispersed retaliatory options in the event of a direct war with Israel. Call it a masterclass in geostrategic encirclement. Its alleged hypersonic missiles can also overwhelm Israeli ballistic missile defence systems deployed thus far. This is one reason why Israel is waiting for a propitious moment to retaliate; the other being the pivotal US presidential elections on Nov 5. Tel Aviv needs to know whether a new US presidential administration will back it to the hilt.
Israel’s waiting game also hints of uncertainties within the US deep state which is probably vacillating on its preferred presidential candidate. If there were clear indications that the chosen one was Donald J. Trump, Israel would have likely retaliated within days of the Oct 1 Iranian attack. A Kamala Harris administration may not be as Israel-friendly as her predecessors and the following sections in this commentary alludes to the reasons behind this policy departure. I also doubt whether Washinton’s hands can be forced by a series of dubious attacks against US military targets in the Middle East anytime between now and Nov 5. Moreover, such an event would allow Russia to steamroll over much of eastern Ukraine.
Whatever the outcome of the evolving US political calculus, a wider Middle Eastern war remains on course.
Ukraine is another flashpoint that may lead to an L-WW3. However, Russia would have likely achieved its major military objectives before a new president takes office on Jan 20 2025. This may include the capture of the entire Donbas region — its primary objective all along — as well as the Odesa oblast. The latter scenario will reduce Ukraine into a landlocked country without access to the Black Sea.
Then there is North Korea and China. I doubt Pyongyang and Beijing will jump into the fray as soon as the Middle Eastern tinderbox is lit. They will likely play a low-intensity attritional game of cat and mouse in the region until a clearer picture emerges in the Middle East. North Korea may fire missiles across Japan — as they have repeatedly done in the past — while China may engage in provocative naval and air manoeuvres in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. The primary goal here would be to pin down US military assets in the region, preventing them from being redeployed to the Middle East and Europe.
Realising this possible geopolitical checkmate, the European Union is now actively toying with the idea of introducing compulsory military draft.
The Chokepoints
Chokepoints represent the geographic Achilles Heel of the global system and they will likely be targeted in an L-WW3.
In fact, a limited WW3 will begin and end as a war on key planetary chokepoints. These geoeconomic chokepoints are vital for global trade, military deployment and energy flows. Any disruption in these areas will have significant global consequences. The following are some of the most important chokepoints at stake.
Strait of Hormuz: Located between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, it is one of the most strategically important waterways in the world, handling approximately 20-30% of the world’s seaborne oil shipments. Iran has repeatedly threatened to close the Strait in response to an Israeli attack or a regional war led by the United States. A closure of the Strait will disrupt global oil markets, resulting in a massive spike in energy prices, hyperinflation and global socioeconomic instability. All Iran needs to do is sink a few large vessels in the strait and deploy mines. An outright Iranian naval blockade is unlikely as it will be swiftly neutered by the combined forces of the United States and its allies.
Source: US Energy Information Administration
Bab el-Mandeb Strait: Located between Yemen in the Arabian Peninsula and Djibouti and Eritrea in the Horn of Africa, it marks the southern entry point to the Red Sea. The Strait is already captive to Houthi militias aligned to Iran. In recent months, many ships along this corridor have been attacked, incapacitated or sunk by Houthi missiles (which have also targeted Israel), forcing merchant vessels to opt for the longer and costlier route to Europe via Southern Africa. Suez Canal: This is a no-brainer. Look at the map above. The viability of the Suez Canal depends on the free flow of maritime vessels via the Bab el-Mandeb. Connecting the Mediterranean Sea to the Red Sea via eastern Egypt, the Suez Canal is a critical maritime passage that facilitates the movement of nearly 12% of global trade as well as military logistics to US allies in the region. While it has been speculated that Iran’s proxy Hamas may attack maritime vessels in the Suez, I find this scenario to be highly unlikely as it will hand Israel the moral high ground in its proxy war with Iran. Such attacks will also enrage Egypt which has been a faithful Israeli servitor for years. The Houthis in Yemen however will face no such constraints, especially after they were subjected to a prolonged Saudi-led genocidal war which had included a significant Egyptian contingent.
The Middle Eastern chokepoints are arguably the most sensitive nerve centres in an L-WW3 but there are counterparts elsewhere that may act as a force multiplier. In Asia alone, there are three such chokepoints.
To read the rest of this analysis, click here.
Dr Mathew Maavak specialises in systems science, global risks, strategic foresight, geopolitics and governance. He has published numerous Op-Eds on a variety of eclectic subjects for over 20 years – by ‘connecting the dots’ in a disjointed world.
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